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Choudhry, R M, Hinze, J W, Arshad, M and Gabriel, H F (2012) Subcontracting Practices in the Construction Industry of Pakistan. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1353–9.

Cruz, N F d and Marques, R C (2012) Delivering Local Infrastructure through PPPs: Evidence from the School Sector. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1433–43.

Halman, J I M and Voordijk, J T (2012) Balanced Framework for Measuring Performance of Supply Chains in House Building. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1444–50.

Hanna, A S, Tadt, E J and Whited, G C (2012) Request for Information: Benchmarks and Metrics for Major Highway Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1347–52.

Inyang, N, Al-Hussein, M, El-Rich, M and Al-Jibouri, S (2012) Ergonomic Analysis and the Need for Its Integration for Planning and Assessing Construction Tasks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1370–6.

Kikuchi, S, Kronprasert, N and Easa, S M (2012) Aggregate Blending Using Fuzzy Optimization. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1411–20.

Mostafavi, A, Valentin, V, Abraham, D M and Louis, J (2012) Assessment of the Productivity of Nighttime Asphalt Paving Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1421–32.

Sullivan, K T and Oates, H D (2012) Analysis of Arizona’s LEED for New Construction Population’s Credits. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1386–93.

Tamer, Z, Yoon, Y and Hastak, M (2012) Protocol for Profitability Analysis Using Internal Entities in Organizational Structure of Construction Companies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1394–402.

Taylor, T R B, Uddin, M, Goodrum, P M, McCoy, A and Shan, Y (2012) Change Orders and Lessons Learned: Knowledge from Statistical Analyses of Engineering Change Orders on Kentucky Highway Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1360–9.

Wibowo, A, Permana, A, Kochendörfer, B, Kiong, R T L, Jacob, D and Neunzehn, D (2012) Modeling Contingent Liabilities Arising from Government Guarantees in Indonesian BOT/PPP Toll Roads. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1403–10.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Risk management; Toll roads; Indonesia; Government; Toll road; Guarantee; Contingent liability; Risk; Simulation; Indonesia;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000555
  • Abstract:
    By the end of 2010, the Government of Indonesia (GoI) issued a new regulation on government guarantee provision to protect project sponsors from government-related project risks in public–private partnered (PPP) infrastructure development. Whereas the provision of guarantees can help improve the creditworthiness of PPP projects, it also may expose the GoI to considerable fiscal risk as a result of contingent liabilities the GoI incurs when providing guarantees. This requires a systematic contingent liability analysis to understand the full extent of their exposures. The present paper discusses simple and operational methodologies of quantifying payments of guarantees given to PPP toll road projects to protect project sponsors from skyrocketing costs of acquiring land, delays in scheduled toll adjustment, and compensation payments in case of nationalization. The paper also includes extensive modeling of key project risks, i.e., land cost escalation, initial traffic volume, inflation rates, toll adjustment delays, and a nationalization event. The methodologies are tested on a case study of a PPP toll road project in Indonesia implemented under a build-operate-transfer (BOT) arrangement to demonstrate its application. A Monte Carlo–based simulation is performed to estimate two measures of exposures that are the expected and excess payment of each guarantee. Although the discussion is framed within the context of a specific sector and country, the methodologies offered herein can be adopted to other countries and sectors facing similar problems.

Zhang, D, Haas, C T, Goodrum, P M, Caldas, C H and Granger, R (2012) Construction Small-Projects Rework Reduction for Capital Facilities. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1377–85.